The Thai economy is recovering and if the political situation is stable and the financial crisis in Europe over, gross domestic product (GDP) could expand by 5.2 per cent this year, Thanawat Polwichai, director of the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said on Tuesday.
Mr Thanawat said a survey of economic expansion in the first quarter of the year confirmed that the economy has rebounded in all regions due to global economic recovery that helped boost the country’s exports.
The survey found that first quarter GDP growth is projected at 9.2 per cent in the Northeast, 8.6 per cent in the North, 9.1 per cent in the South, 16 per cent in Central, and 11.1 per cent in Bangkok and its vicinity. These would make the country’s GDP expand by 12 per cent in the first quarter.
He projected that economic recovery in the region would help boost Thai economic growth to as high as 5.2 per cent at year-end — on the condition that politics is rapidly stabilised, the world economy has recovered as expected and there is no further financial crisis in Europe.
If there is no political stability, the world economy expands slower than expectations and the European financial problem continues, Thai GDP growth could be as low as 3.5 per cent, the director said.
The centre maintained its GDP growth forecast at 4.5-5.2 per cent for 2010.
The Bangkok Post